The cost of
electric vehicles will drop dramatically to match
combustion-engine cars within just seven years, according to
Nissan's head of global research and development.
Improvements in battery, motor and inverter
technology will drive the cost downwards, said Mitsuhiko
Yamashita, Nissan's R&D chief.
Economies of scale in battery manufacture
will make the biggest impact on electric vehicle costs, because
the battery makes up to 30 to 40% of an electric vehicle's cost.
Other savings will come through a lower
parts count on electric vehicles and easier design and
manufacture.
"This is one of my biggest expectations
that the electric vehicle will be much less complicated to
engineer," said Yamashita, "because there is no
emissions control and exhaust to engineer, package, test and fit
and the platform is simpler."
Nissan is forging ahead with EV
developments, as part of its Nissan Green Programme 2010,
promising to launch an electric car in the US and Japan in 2010,
Israel and Denmark in 2011 and the rest of the world in 2012.
Today's electric cars, Nissan rates as
generation one, the cars launched in 2010/2011 as generation
two, those between 2012 and 214 as generation three and those in
2015 as generation four.
Taking a constant cost-baseline of a
conventional car in 2000 to 2015 as a comparison, Nissan
believes its second generation EV will come down in cost to
twice that of the conventional car.
"We have to work on governments to help us
with subsidies to kick-off sales for the second-generation EV,"
said Yamashita.
Nissan is lobbying governments around the
world for support to help EV sales. "I'd be surprised if the UK
government doesn't provide some subsidies," he said.
Ideally Nissan is looking for help in
offsetting around one third of the EV's cost in generation two.
A fast pace of technical and manufacturing
advance is forecast to drastically reduce the cost of generation
three EVs, bringing the cost to within a 30% premium.
Subsidies to reach parity with
conventional-engined cars could be as little as a "few thousand
pounds".
By the time generation four EVs are
introduced in 2015, Nissan forecasts that their costs will be
comparable with combustion-engine cars.